Hurricane Mitigation

Thesis Statement

This document will consider the impact of hurricanes, particularly on the most affected areas of the United States, and considers various ways in which negative effects can be mitigated at national, state, local and individual levels.

Introduction This paper will demonstrate the need for the United States to improve her hurricane mitigation measurements. It is critical to the field of emergency and management because it can save lives and reduce the costly destruction of cities. It can also be used as a model for other countries. Hurricanes making landfall have increased over the last few years and will continue to increase over time. To turn a blind eye and wait for the next hurricane to strike is to be reactive. The United States must take a stand and be proactive in protecting her citizens from future hurricanes. She must learn about her mistakes from history and work to implement the much need mitigation measures. These mitigation measurements cover the several areas ranging from building materials, improved evacuation plans, clean water supply, just to name a few.

Hurricanes by their very nature are unpredictable although to some extent it is possible to predict where they are likely to strike and when, some places in the world being much more susceptible than others where the possibility is rarer and so preparations likely to be few or non-existent as in the United Kingdom of October 1997 or France in February 2009.Patricia Grossi and Howard Kunreuther in their report New Catastrophe Models for Hard Times state that :-

Only after a disaster occurs does one recognize the importance of preparing for these types of extreme events.

The writers acknowledge that in the Atlantic basin there has been  increase in the number of  hurricanes and their intensities  over a period of 30 years and that this tend is likely to continue. Power and McCarty in their 2006  article ‘Environmental Risk Management Decision- Making in a Societal Context’ point to the numerous studies that emphasize the need for ’Improved understanding , monitoring and decision making in environmental management’ and this would include both understanding  the nature of hurricanes and the way in which man ought to cope with them.

Where and when do hurricanes occur?

Study of these massive and destructive storms reveal that they have certain similarities – they travel from East to West and they tend to occur in the warmest parts of the world, an area referred to as the Typhoon Convergence Zone. They also tend to occur during the warmest months of the year – in the northern hemisphere this tends to happens from June to November and in the South from December to May i.e. at any time of the year a typhoon can occur somewhere on the earth’s surface.

Illustration 1 Hurricanes Paths Around the World

When we examine where all the hurricanes occur in the world and the paths they travel, a few similarities stand out. Two similarities are that all the cyclones occur along the warmest region of the planet known as the tropical convergence zone a warmest months of the year there, these storms spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and clockwise in the Southern Philippines are called severe tropical deference to United L

Hurricane is the Caribbean word for both evil spirit and for a big wind. The web page ‘When and Where Do Hurricanes Occur’ define a hurricane as a ‘large rotating system of oceanic tropical systems of tropical origin with sustained surface winds of at least 74 miles per hour.’ In various parts of the world their names vary e.g. in Australia they are called ‘Severe Tropical Cyclones’, but in the Philippines the name is ‘Chubasco’. Every tropical sea apart from the South East Pacific or South Atlantic has such storms. All the names refer to what in America are known as hurricanes. Hurricanes do not occur instantaneously, but arise gradually from a tropical disturbance when a series of storms last over 24 hours as defined on the National Hurricane Center home page, this period of formation being referred to as the Genesis stage when air piles up. As it rises a cloud is formed. In the warm moist  tropics the atmosphere is unstable and more susceptible to change. Then , if several different things occur, comes the intensification stage. Firstly the disturbance must take place in an elongated area of low pressure which also contain a partial cyclonic rotation. As the winds increase in speed and strength more water and heat are transferred from the ocean surface into the air. There is a gap between these two stages because many storms never develop into a hurricane.

Hurricanes cannot be eliminated. What must be done however is to mitigate their negative effects. Such mitigation efforts can usefully be divided into those to be carried out on an individual, family or very local level, those on a county or state level and those which need national or international coordination. Georgia for instance has on its Georgia Emergency Management page lots of information for its citizens  in order that they might better deal with  various types of severe weather, including the tools for an emergency supply kit and so that they can put together a communications plan and remain  informed about  any possible threats.

Prediction and warnings

This must in the first place be an international effort, with the means being in place tp predict and to track hurricanes. Such efforts if carried out adequately will mean that more localized steps can be taken so as to minimize damage in whatever form e.g. local storm warnings  or the implementing of evacuation plans. Using various resources the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ( the NOAA) for  Florida for instance was able in 2008 2-5 major hurricanes. The site as well as giving up to date information about weather conditions also has links to various hurricane preparedness sites such as the Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Building Construction

Building in likely hurricane areas should be constructed in such a way that they are as far as is possible hurricane proof.  This will include such measures as the enforcement of adequate building codes for homes, businesses, and roadways. It has been suggested that there be restriction on residential building within 20 miles of affected coastlines, but economically this is unlikely to occur, as tourists flock to such areas outside the hurricane periods and also it would seem to many to be a waste of valuable space for something that might or might not take place.

Insurance companies have a part to play if they offer favorable rates to those buildings making the best use of suitable materials and methods. In a paper which  summarizes such incentive programs in some southeast U.S.A. states of  March 2007 , ‘Insurance Incentives for Wind Mitigation Measures’ from  AScouncil.org several practical measures are described , strengthening roofing for instance so that water does not leak into a building from above. In Florida, according to the above article in 1992 Statute 627.0629 came into operation. This required those providing  residential property insurance in that state to provide  “discounts, credits, or other rate differentials, or other appropriate reductions in deductibles” for buildings whose constructions methods are those which have been found to minimize loss. The incentives offered vary from 10 – 40 % on premiums. There are also building codes for new buildings which take into consideration new knowledge. The state also offers a list of approved measures on the web page found at http://www.dca.state.fl.us/fdem/mitdb/index.cfm and also the State of Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation has given a contract to the University of Florida  for them to develop a Home Structure Rating System so that  homeowners can obtain current hurricane resistance ratings for  their homes. In an article entitled ‘Long Term Home Owners Policies Make Sense’ of February 2001 Sean  Mooney notes how by using just two measures insurance losses could be , he says, reduced by 40%, these being that walls be braced and homes bolted to their foundations at a cost of about $4000, a cost he suggests might be written into mortgage agreements.

Michael Soligo commenting on the building of ‘High rise buildings in hurricane areas’ in RWDI Technotes , Issue 26, notes the usefulness of wind tunnel experiments when it comes to such designs, but adds that wind loading is a very complex latter and this has led to an ultra conservative approach :- to remain practical, building codes must simplify the treatment of wind loads, and they often produce conservative results. This conservatism can translate into extremely high loads in hurricane areas.

Mr Soldigo describes how the wind tunnel studies have worked towards improving design safety and is recognized by ASCE 7-93 Standard  as well as other and other major building codes as a suitable way of  determining wind loads and give more accurate results than merely analytical methods. He lists the advantages of their uses as :-

• Increased accuracy

• Building and site specific

• Reduced construction cost by minimizing conservatism (cost savings of $500,000 or more have resulted)

• Increased safety

• Increased knowledge of torsional i.e. twisting effects

Railways and Bridges

These have proved to be particularly vulnerable to the destructive torsion effects of hurricanes as is described in their ‘ Analysis of the Interstate 10 Twin Bridge’s Collapse During Hurricane Katrina’ by Chen , Witt et al. The bridge  built in 1963 was rendered completely unusable . The report concluded that :-

the main reason for the collapse and excessive displacement of bridge spans

 was the apparent loss of effective gravity load which led to the bridge decks floating on the surface of water at the time of failure. After the air escaped

 and the space filled with water, the bridge decks landed again on the piers but at different transverse locations or dropped off their supports in the longitudinal (traffic) direction.

The compilers of this report were able to compare the effects with the relatively light damage sustained by other bridges in the area of New Orleans, presumably affected by similar pressures, but in different ways. A model was made for analysis which revealed how the trapped air led to the concrete being able to float away from its supports. This has led to greater knowledge as so will ensure that any new structures are designed in such a way that they are more sustainable. In this case the reason was trapped air, and so engineers drilled holes through another bridge and so prevented excessive damage.

There are bridges built much earlier which have lasted. At the turn of the 20th century Henry Flager proposed a huge extension to the Florida East Coast Railway which would mean the building of many bridges , some spanning as much as 7 miles between the various islands. Flager’s railway was destroyed in the 1935 hurricane, according to the report by Laura Randall on the web page ‘Bridges to Paradise’ but the bridges have remained intact. Engineer’s of the time did not have modern knowledge, but obviously hit on a suitable design. So bridges and railways are not necessarily going to fall foul of the hurricanes and as more knowledge emerges will, in some cases at least , prove to be stronger than the storms.

Transportation and Evacuation in a Hurricane

In June 2006 a report was made to congress regarding Evacuation Plans in a Catastrophic Hurricane by the U.S. Department of Transport in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The conclusions of the report, despite the fact that hurricanes regularly visit the United States, was :-

State and local evacuation plans have adequate decision making and       management structures for evacuations associated with non-catastrophic incidents.  However, many of these plans do not adequately address           requirements for decision making and management of mass evacuations associated with catastrophic incidents.

Plans were found to be strong regarding  the development of operating methods for  the agencies who would be involved in any evacuations. It was decided   that   the various  plans adequately covered general evacuation, taking into consideration  hazards that might  require evacuation of the population on a large scale. Plans designated the various groups  that would need to be evacuated under various possible conditions and planners were aware of the number of people needing evacuation  and the necessary vehicles required as well as how the decision to evacuate should be taken, the  estimated time required to complete an evacuation, and the distance the  evacuees would have to  travel in order to guarantee  their security.

It was noted that the individual states rarely organize exercises in their areas in order to test out their plans. The report concludes that merely having a plan, however well though out, does not  guarantee smooth mass evacuations because of the large number of agencies  that need top work together at all levels and recommends that  officials from the various  agencies need to become accustomed to working together so that they can better assess the likely effectiveness of their plans and how these address various possible contingencies. It admits that in the Gulf Coast region there has been a degree of co-ordination between groups, but stresses that this would be inadequate if a hurricane such as Katrina recurred.

Mention is made of special groups such as the residents of hospitals and prisons. Institutions such as these are in general responsible for the formation of their own evacuation plans and for making the decision  whether and when evacuate their residents. Each institution must their own unique issues such as whether the risk of moving  those who are in very poor health outweighs the risk of staying put, which may involve other problems for both residents and staff. People who require  wheelchairs or who rely on other specialized medical equipment as well as  those with severe hearing or visual impairments and the physically frail may have particular  needs with regard to communication, transportation, and housing  that require forward planning so as to meet Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 guidelines. This is a general civil rights piece of legislation which among its provisions says that as far as possible ( Section 12147) provision must be made for those with disabilities to ‘the maximum extent feasible’.

Communications

In any crisis effective communications play an important role. In the case of hurricanes they can serve to  convince residents that they need to evacuate and during the actual evacuation process effective communications will add to  the efficiency of the process as well as  reducing both the  mental and physical strain involved when  people are forced to  leave the majority of  their possessions and the seeming security of their own homes, especially as they will have no certainty about  where they will stay or how long they will be away and so the  more information  available about such matters as the  availability of shelters, what and how much  they can take as well as  provision for accommodating pets, the security that will be provided in their absence from home.

The 2006 report to Congress mentioned under the heading Evacuation mentions regional communication plans and their weaknesses. Use is made of radio, television, the internet, telephone as well as other methods. It mentions that several of the Gulf Coast States give information in both English and Spanish and in New Orleans evacuation related information was available in Vietnamese. These programs are praised  for the general information they dissipate, but points out that  plans are far forward when it comes to  providing up to date  information to those with limited English  in a time of disaster as to who and when should evacuate and any changes of plans already published. The report also notes that communication plans prior to evacuation are better organized than those to take place during such a mass movement. There is stress on the need for the provision of such  information as the availability of shelters, food, fuel as well as  various essential services, including medical provision, along proposed evacuation routes  as well as traffic conditions on possible alternative routes; the location of shelters that are able to cope with those with special needs as well as  provision for the  identification of people using public transport provided for evacuation purposes and where such people would be transported to. As might be expected Florida, often a hurricane victim, has better provision than some other states including a motorist information service which can provide up to date route-specific information. The report states however  in order to provide  such real-time information extensive traffic monitoring is necessary and that the equipment needed to do this adequately is not in wide use except in Florida.

Individual Preparation

American government advice on the Ready America web page tells its citizens to prepare a kit in readiness, one that is portable and so can be stored in a vehicle. This should include items such as non-perishable food, bottled water, maps, a radio that does not rely on mains power such as a hand cranked one. Also mentioned are spare flashlights and batteries. Bedding will be needed Medical supplies should be included together with copies of any prescriptions and any other important papers such as insurance documents, wills, tax records and social security cards. Other items to be included will depend upon family or personal needs such as baby food or pet supplies.

The Florida Hurricane Shelter Evacuation Roads Safety Preparations includes advice on a variety of matters including making an inventory, possibly with photos or videos, of property.

It is further suggests that shrubs and trees be trimmed so as to cause less injury from broken limbs and gives instructions for making glass panes in windows safe from breakage and the moving of loose items such as outdoor furniture indoors if a storm is imminent. Other actions to be taken once a storm is on it sway is to move furniture upstairs if possible, to move any vehicles not required for evacuation purposes to higher land and monitor and broadcast updates regarding the need to evacuate and how and when.

Family Emergency Plans are also described. These need to cover such matters as how members who aren’t together when a storm arrives will contact one another, in case of an emergency and what will happen about pets. Plans need to be in place as to where to meet. People need to be aware of plans in place at places where family members are likely to be such as schools or work and if no such plans are already in place then it is suggested that volunteers come forward.

People are advised to turn off electricity at the mains, to fill containers with water ready for the family’s return, and to take a camp stove and canned goods with them. If there are roof turbines these must be capped as if they tear off in the wind then a roof hole will be left into which storm water and wind can easily enter the building.

Family and individual long term plans will include taking out adequate insurance .Once a storm has been named insurance companies are unlikely to make changes to policies. Since the 1992 and hurricane Andrew , when many insurance companies failed, there has been increasing  reliance on disaster modeling when  assessing risk. Those who produce such models take into account a large number of factors, including first of all the risk of hazard occurrence. Note is taken of storm tracks and the position of likely landfalls together with the  angle of incidence. The exact geographical location of a property is taken into account as well as details of its construction and the type of occupancy such as domestic or industrial. The buildings height and age are also factored in. This then enables hazard the calculation of the vulnerability to damage of the properties at risk, including  the value of contents and time losses such as the interruption to any business or possible rebuilding or relocation expenses. As a result of the disasters of recent years insurers have been driven to  take a significantly closer look at their own practices and their understanding of risk.,

Recovery Measures

Almost as important as how to cope in a hurricane are the longer term measures needed in order to recover from it. The American Red Cross web page ‘Recovery After a Disaster’ gives helpful advice. This includes how to ensure the purity of water so that water borne diseases such as cholera and typhoid do not develop; food safety; the safe use of generators as well as how to train for disaster preparedness. The EPa gives advice to those who obtain their water from wells  in an article ‘In a Hurricane’s Aftermath’ but one wonders in practice how easy it would be to follow its quite precise guidelines especially in the first few days and hours. After a hurricane it  is suggested watching out for fallen power lines and staying out of the damaged area – although of course the latter may not be possible if you are already in such a place. It tells people to listen to the radio ( perhaps theyshould add the word ‘local’) for information and instructions and using a flashlight than candles to check for damage the latter because there could be broken gas or fuel pipes. Communications are always adversely affected in a disaster and the Red Cross provides a SAFE and WELL web site where people con register and leave messages for their relatives and friends. There is also a link to a page listing various organizations which give communication help such as Community Voice Mail, The Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

The American government has a recently revised ( December 2008) National Incident Management System under the Departmentof Homeland Security. This according to its administrator David Paulinson, as outlined on the FEMA web page ‘DHS Announces Revised National Incident Management System’ :-

has enhanced interoperability among emergency responders at all levels of government and is the product of a collaborative effort involving hundreds                    of emergency personnel from across the nation.  We incorporated lessons                       learned from Hurricane Katrina, clarified incident command system concepts, increased emphasis on planning and mutual aid, expanded the intelligence/investigation function, and better aligned the NIMS document          with the National Response Framework

The web page USA: Hurricane Katrina Mississippi Recovery Update dated 27th December 2007 contains a long list of statistics including the provision of housing assistance for more than 200,000 individuals and families. More than 40,000 housing units such as mobile homes had been in use and at the date of the report more than 12,000 of these were still in use. The cost of help given is listed as more than 2.3 billion dollars. As well as giving help to individuals there had provision being made for such things as the repair of bridges and roads and water sources and the removal of debris and makes mention of Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. In an Ecodecision article of April 1994 Alcira Kriemer describes ‘A Dilemma for the Development of Cities’.The author suggested that the following questions be addressed :-

Which countries and investments in cities offer opportunities to undertake

 visible and replicable initiatives in disaster prevention and mitigation?

What innovations can help reduce exposure of urban lifelines and infrastructure?

What are some of the successful experiences in reducing urban vulnerability that

could be disseminated?

How can we make the urban poor less vulnerable to natural disasters?

What needs in professional education and training must be addressed to help

reduce losses?

Conclusion

25 years after those questions were asked the answers are still being sought. However it is obvious from the facts stated above that as each disaster occurs, as they will continue to do so, lessons are being learnt and put into practice. There is obvious need for instance for more co-operation between the various agencies concerned, and there is also a need  for financial provision for long term projects such as strengthening levies. This is not a topic that the country as a whole as well as individual states, counties, institutions and families can afford to ignore. Pre-planning and foresight are essential. America has to accept that much of its area is a storm zone and that if such places are to continue to be habitable  then there is a cost involved, both in time taken and money committed.

1)      List of Illustrations

Hurricane paths and areas of the world, where do hurricanes occur? retrieved 9th February 2009 from http://library.thinkquest.org/03oct/01424/where_do_hurricanes_occur.htm

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